It's a hotly debated issue these days: Has the introduction of electric cars resulted in a reduction in CO2 emissions or not? Scientists from Radboud University have taken a closer look at this subject

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If households worldwide were to switch to electric cars, it would, in almost all cases, reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions. This is the case even when average CO2 emissions from power plants remain at their current level. Such is the outcome of a study done by environmental researchers at Radboud University after calculating three scenarios for the next thirty years. The research will soon be published in the science journal: Nature Sustainability

It's a hotly debated issue these days: Has the introduction of electric cars resulted in a reduction in CO2 emissions or not? After all, the production of EVs generates CO2 emissions, and in many places, the required electricity to charge car batteries is still generated by polluting coal and gas power stations. However, according to Florian Knobloch, one of the environmental researchers and lead author of the study, calculations show that if humankind were to focus on electrification worldwide, we would, in almost all cases, get a reduction in greenhouse gases in return.

Three scenarios

The researchers did a so-called "life-cycle assessment," in which they didn’t only calculate how much greenhouse gas is produced when using electric cars but also in how much is produced in the production chain as well as in waste processing. In addition to electric vehicles, the researchers also made similar calculations for heating homes with heat pumps versus more traditional methods of heating homes.

Three different future scenarios for the next thirty years were compared with each other: one scenario in which we continue with the current climate policy; another scenario in which climate policy is pursued on the basis of the 2-degree reduction objective from the Paris agreement; and a worst-case scenario in which the CO2 emissions from the electricity sector remain as they are today.

Even with ‘dirty’ electricity taken into account electric vehicles come out on top when it comes to efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions - Image credit: Universal-Sci

For 95% of all kilometers driven worldwide and 95% of all heated homes, electrification would already have a favorable effect on CO2 emissions right now. Moreover, that favorable effect only increases over time in each of the three future scenarios, especially when active climate policy is pursued. Steef Hanssen, co-author of the study, mentioned there are only a few exceptions, such as in India, Poland, and Iran, where it would be wiser to maintain the fossil car fleet for the time being. The main reason for this is that electricity production in these countries is currently associated with very high CO2 emissions, resulting in relatively 'dirty' electricity.

In order to make the simulations as realistic as possible, the researchers took into account all kinds of things, such as the percentage of households that are expected to actually switch to an electric car. Knobloch added that the electricity grid would, of course, not be able to cope with a sudden transition, which means that the production capacity should slowly increase. That is why the researchers also take into account a gradual build-up in their model.

Although the fleet of fossil fuel-powered cars and boilers will also become increasingly efficient in the coming years, the researchers predict that those improvements will not outweigh the benefits of electrification. From a climate perspective, electrification should, therefore, be stimulated almost everywhere in the world.

Sources and further reading: Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time / Radboud University press release